The thing that always fascinates me is motive.
Whether we are talking about climate change, peak oil, air pollution, or whether the moon landings were real, you always have people willing to froth with religious fervor that, “it is not true”. I work with some of them and it is interesting to probe their thought processes.
Generally I find four root causes:
1) Selfishness: Some are quite open about this. The high performance/luxury vehicle makes them feel important and special. They will not give it up, no matter what the cost to others.
2) Hatred of the group promoting the issue: If party “X” is promoting it, then it must be bad.
3) Fun: They enjoy being a troll. It give them a sense of power. Here in the south I see a lot of this. People hang a rebel flag or act like a redneck, just to piss the rest of the country off. They love to watch the liberals dance in anger. It almost has reach the status of a sport.
4) Delusion: Never underestimate the need for people to delude themselves. Life can be really hard. Sometimes insisting that a perpetual motion machine works is part of their coping strategy for dealing with the loss of their job, loved one or social status. I see this with some of my evangelical friends. They were on a path to self destruction till they found “X”. Now that they have “X”, “It is in god's hands”.
Which isn't to say that dissent is not a valid and useful thing. It keeps science honest. In fact, at work I have pretty must taken on the role of dissenter. They call me “Mr. Sunshine”, because I always tell them the flaw in their big idea. The difference is, that I have had decades of experience in my field and actually know my subject. Sometimes they overcome the flawed logic, sometimes they don't. But to be a valid dissenter you need to know your subject and have real world experience in science and technology (as apposed to deluding yourself that you know a subject).
As a citizen in a democracy, we have several choices when science, politics and beliefs collide.
1) Read up on what real scientists are saying (not the TV talking heads) and accept their judgment.
2) Get a college degree for the field in question, then spend decades working in that field.
3) Read legitimate science literature and try and apply your life experience.
All three choices have problems:
Blind acceptance of authority is never a good thing.
College degrees are expensive and time consuming. If you tried for a degree in every field you had a question, you would spend your whole life in college. An this assumes you don't get the all important real life experience in that field, or that you are any good in your field of study.
Reading legitimate scientific literature is a good start but unless you have had years of science and technology experience in the real world, your going to make invalid assumptions.
Yes, I know this sounds elitist, but others have made some good comparisons on this subject. One of my favorites was second guessing the airline pilot every time you fly on a commercial airliner. Owning a flight simulator program is not a valid reason to break into the cockpit, and wrestle the controls from the pilot. Not if you want to keep living.
In the case of peak oil and climate change, I have used a three pronged approach.
1)I looked at what the experts had to say.
2)I then went looking for the data behind their conclusions.
3)Then I went looking for the dissenters to see what they had to say.
My advantage in looking into these subjects, is that I spent several decades in a large scientific bureaucracy working as a physicist. I was use to analyzing raw data and avoiding the inherent pitfalls. I am also use to dealing with how personnel self interest, or politics could distort findings. An organization does not willing publish information that cuts review streams.
In the final analysis, it all comes down to whether the predictions are true. Is the arctic melting? Is climate changing? Is oil getting more expensive? Are we drilling for oil in more remote and hostile environments?
If reality matches the predictions (or is worse than predicted), yet you keep coming up with excuses not to accept the data. Then it is time to take a real hard look in the mirror.
Sunday, October 14, 2007
Saturday, September 29, 2007
Ben Bernanke and the great depression:
With a lame duck president, the future of the country seems to be in the hands of Mr. Bernanke. So I went looking for some insight in to how the man thinks.
The first thing I ran across is a review of his book, "Essays on the Great Depression” Reviewed for the Cato Journal by Anna J. Schwartz (April 6, 2002). I would have thought that anything from the libertarian CATO institute, would be a blistering attack on government intervention and on the fed in particular, but it was a very nice summary of the book. Which was exactly what I had wanted, since I didn't feel like wading through a book fully of economic jargon.
A very telling paraphragh from the review:
Sound a lot like todays sub-prime mess doesn't it. If I had read this before the last fed open market meeting I would have bet on the .5 rate cut.
The second item I ran across was: Remarks by Governor Ben S. Bernanke, At the Conference to Honor Milton Friedman, University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois, November 8, 2002, On Milton Friedman's Ninetieth Birthday.
A quote from that speech :
Again if I had read this before the fed meeting I would have bet on the .5 cut. The news was full of “bank failures” and Bernanke is convinced that it is the feds job to stop these by any means necessary.
He even quotes Friedman about the great depression:
This is a man obsessed with bank failures and runs, but what does he think about the death of the dollar, due to high inflation and the dumping of the dollar as a reserve currency, that have resulted from his policies?
Evidently he thinks it is a good thing!
I'm not at all sure I agree. On the positive side, it is wiping out the federal debt (and everyone else's debt), at a remarkable rate. It also is causing oil to rise, which should cause more conservation. It should also slow or stop the export of jobs and manufacturing.
On the other hand it is going to become increasingly more difficult for retirees to live since their savings are not accruing faster than inflation, while the bogus “cost of living” adjustments of Social security will never keep up with inflation.
A very mixed bag. My brothers enormous mortgage and credit card debt is shrinking, but my fathers life savings are also shrinking. At the same time I have invested heavily in overseas stock markets. The death of the dollar is causing my investments to soar (at least on paper).
So I went looking for some more indications on how Ben viewed the inflation of the Weimar Republic, and found a lengthly endnote in one of his Fed speeches. From that endnote:
Read the rest of Endnote #16, it basically says that bubble popping if a really bad idea.
So Ben seems to think that inflation (even hyperinflation) is better than depression. At the same time the people happy about a strong dollar (like the Chinese) are going to get really shrill in their dislike of his policies. After all, pegging your currency against the dollar, is now the same thing as tying an anchor around your neck and jumping overboard.
Dollar verses Euro and Yuan.
The first thing I ran across is a review of his book, "Essays on the Great Depression” Reviewed for the Cato Journal by Anna J. Schwartz (April 6, 2002). I would have thought that anything from the libertarian CATO institute, would be a blistering attack on government intervention and on the fed in particular, but it was a very nice summary of the book. Which was exactly what I had wanted, since I didn't feel like wading through a book fully of economic jargon.
A very telling paraphragh from the review:
"Bernanke distinguishes at least two channels by which deflation induced depression. A nonmonetary channel that, in his view, linked falling prices and falling output was banking panics and financial crises in choking off normal flows of credit. The decline in financial intermediation that followed from the reduction in banks' ability to lend engendered a fall in the net worth of households and firms holding nominally fixed debt. The ensuing debt crisis increased the number of bankruptcies and became an important propagator of economic contraction."
Sound a lot like todays sub-prime mess doesn't it. If I had read this before the last fed open market meeting I would have bet on the .5 rate cut.
The second item I ran across was: Remarks by Governor Ben S. Bernanke, At the Conference to Honor Milton Friedman, University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois, November 8, 2002, On Milton Friedman's Ninetieth Birthday.
A quote from that speech :
"It was in large part to improve the management of banking panics that the Federal Reserve was created in 1913. However, as Friedman and Schwartz discuss in some detail, in the early 1930s the Federal Reserve did not serve that function."
Again if I had read this before the fed meeting I would have bet on the .5 cut. The news was full of “bank failures” and Bernanke is convinced that it is the feds job to stop these by any means necessary.
He even quotes Friedman about the great depression:
“Germany had been insulated by her hyperinflation and associated floating exchange rate."
This is a man obsessed with bank failures and runs, but what does he think about the death of the dollar, due to high inflation and the dumping of the dollar as a reserve currency, that have resulted from his policies?
Evidently he thinks it is a good thing!
I'm not at all sure I agree. On the positive side, it is wiping out the federal debt (and everyone else's debt), at a remarkable rate. It also is causing oil to rise, which should cause more conservation. It should also slow or stop the export of jobs and manufacturing.
On the other hand it is going to become increasingly more difficult for retirees to live since their savings are not accruing faster than inflation, while the bogus “cost of living” adjustments of Social security will never keep up with inflation.
A very mixed bag. My brothers enormous mortgage and credit card debt is shrinking, but my fathers life savings are also shrinking. At the same time I have invested heavily in overseas stock markets. The death of the dollar is causing my investments to soar (at least on paper).
So I went looking for some more indications on how Ben viewed the inflation of the Weimar Republic, and found a lengthly endnote in one of his Fed speeches. From that endnote:
“More recent research has shown that attempted bubble popping by monetary policymakers played an even greater role in the onset of the Great Depression than we had thought. An insightful article by Hans-Joachim Voth (forthcoming) has shown how the German central bank, under the famous central banker Hjalmar Schacht, contributed mightily to the demise of the Weimar Republic by aggressively attempting to bring down stock prices in 1927. Schacht's policy was successful, in the sense that the stock market crashed. But investment plummeted as well, and the German economic boom of 1924-1928 degenerated into depression and played a role in the global slowdown. Ironically enough, Voth argues persuasively that in fact there was no bubble in German stock prices, so that Schacht's actions were purely destructive. “
Read the rest of Endnote #16, it basically says that bubble popping if a really bad idea.
So Ben seems to think that inflation (even hyperinflation) is better than depression. At the same time the people happy about a strong dollar (like the Chinese) are going to get really shrill in their dislike of his policies. After all, pegging your currency against the dollar, is now the same thing as tying an anchor around your neck and jumping overboard.
Dollar verses Euro and Yuan.
Friday, August 17, 2007
Tasting the Wind:
Zbigniew Brzezinski's warning of an American "False Flag" terrorist incident, to rally support for invading Iran.
Right-wing Philadelphia Daily News scribe Stu Bykofsky openly wishing for a second 9/11, "To save America". Then getting major support from other Right-wing media outlets.
Sometimes facts and figures just don't cut it. Sometimes, you need to taste the wind and say, “Storms A'comin”. To take seemingly unrelated facts (“chatter”) and discern the underlying truths, takes wisdom, humility, an inner voice and dumb luck.
So I will come right out and say it, “Storms A'comin”. By putting this on the web I am going out on a limb, but nothing ventured.............
There are to many little factoids that seem to add up to aggression in a relatively short window. And my inner voice is starting to get uneasy. Between now and the end of the year one of the parties in the GWOT are going to make a move.
Also, I just don't think that W is willing to leave office without one more tilt at the windmill. A modern Don Quixote still oblivious to the results of his actions.
Of course, “Man plans and god laughs”. So all the plans and hubris of both side may never materialize if a hurricane takes out Gulf of Mexico oil production, but.........
A Mexican pipeline bombing showed to much sophistication for a leftist guerrilla group.Declaring part of the Iranian army a terrorist organization.
Zbigniew Brzezinski's warning of an American "False Flag" terrorist incident, to rally support for invading Iran.
Right-wing Philadelphia Daily News scribe Stu Bykofsky openly wishing for a second 9/11, "To save America". Then getting major support from other Right-wing media outlets.
The Mortgage credit disaster and the housing bubble, are not that different than the tech bubble that burst just before 9/11. To save the economy do we start another war?
I will say right up front, I am not a fan of the GWOT. I think we spent our time since 9/11 creating an atmosphere that encourages terror and is eroding the constitution.
What I am trying to address here is trying to predict the future, when the parties of importance would just as soon you not know in advance. 9/11 and Iraq's WMD comes to mind. Pre-9/11 warnings were ignored and WMD “proof” contained little of substance.
When tasting the wind, you don't want to actually read the story, that would only allow lies, half truths, misdirection and the writers illiteracy about he subject to distract you.
Who is pushing what world view is the important question. Who is embracing a story? Who is not reporting it? Where is the stories located, on the front page or in a blog?
The problem is that people tend to lie. I'm not talking about “Who shot JFK?” or “Area 51”, but people often have a selfish agenda that is contrary to the good of their neighbors, country and planet.. If they talked about what they were going to do, people would try and stop them, so they lie.
Look at Huey Long
Don't expect the mainstream media to warn you about the future. They are in the business of selling advertising, getting access to politician and not getting sued.
Saturday, July 14, 2007
Where to live/retire in a post peak world?
I've been giving a lot of though about were I want to live for the rest of my life. My dream is to buy a small piece of land and live “off the grid”, while doing subsistence farming, but there are many external factors to consider.
For me, this research is more about being sick of the rat race and wanting a simpler/healthier lifestyle, in a post peak oil world.
Among the items I'm considering are: Water, Taxes, population density, population demographics, real estate prices, soil quality, natural hazards, alternate energy potential, cultural environment, access/cost of pharmacies and health care.
Water ( rainfall for crops, access to clean fresh drinking water): If you don't have water nothing else matters. Drought prone areas with high population density and poor access to clean drinking water are just a disaster waiting to happen. Regardless of what happens with oil supplies and climate, only a fool would live in such a place.
Trend in annual temperature and rainfall
Climate maps
For drought monitoring use this link
Taxes: As has been pointed out ad nauseam, in a post peak oil world local governments will be hard pressed to maintain essential services. Right behind water supply will be the problem of a shrinking tax base and increased operating costs.
It is really tough to find a current and comprehensive review of taxes (by county) in the USA. Although some sites have a significant amount of information. When I check that information against the facts on the ground I find is very incomplete. Although state income, sales and real estate taxes are not that difficult to find, it is the county, city and school taxes that are the big problem.
I found a couple of sites that had good tax information, but when I checked it against places I know, I found it to be missing a considerable amount of the tax burden. In particular, back in my home town the school taxes and money owed by the county due to embezzlement by the county commissioners were not listed. None the less, these are two really good places to start.
Retirement Living: Taxes by state.
National Association of Home Builders: Residential Real Estate Tax Rates in the American Community Survey
Population density and population demographics: The census bureau provides this information.
Once in a particular thematic map you can switch from state to county view and change the data classes to give a better view. I prefer the quantile classing method and the county view.I think it is important to look at the population density and the AGE of the population. While and aging population is going to impose a greater tax burden on the local government it will also be less likely to riot (if for no other reason than they don't have the stamina).
Real estate prices: Very easy to find thanks to http://www.realtor.com/
Natural hazards (flooding potential, wild fires, earthquake potential, hazardous weather conditions): NOAA Billion Dollar U.S. Weather Disasters and Latest Earthquakes in the USA.
Alternate energy potential: U.S. Solar Radiation Resource Maps, Wind resources.
Soil Quality: http://soils.usda.gov/
PS: Although this sounds like building a “life boat” for the hard times ahead, it's not.
I don't believe that an individual can create a fortress against unstable times. If lawlessness and violence were to become commonplace, someone would simply come and kill me, then take all my stuff. After all, I'm just one guy, eventually I have to sleep or I'll get sick. If thinks were to get really bad, no place will be safe. Think about what has happened to Yugoslavia or what Argentina experienced in 2001.
Here is a good write up to of what happened in Argentina in 2001 , from someone who lived through it. It was originally a series of posts on the survivalist web site forum http://www.frugalsquirrels.com/
Sunday, May 13, 2007
End of an Era!
The “lightweight” version of history taught in most public schools, will probably show that “The Golden Age” for the USA ended in 2000 with the Tech Bubble. It will then tell how economic momentum and clever bookkeeping, allowed us to coast forward for a couple of years.
As a resident of this era, your higher though processes have probably not noticed its end. Mostly because you're busy just trying to get through life, but also because of some very fancy footwork by the federal reserve and some pretty blatant fraud by government agencies that report statistics.
Here is a link to help you understand why you haven't noticed the end (you can skip the first part if you want, and just scroll way down to the chocolate cake).
I'm tempted to start this blog by elaborating on how we got ourselves into this mess, but I will leave it for now. It's pretty must just the same old reasons: greed, politics and self delusion.
But what we all want to know is, what will happen next??????
I wish I had a simple answer for you, but the reality is we are walking a tightrope between two economic extremes. They may manifest themselves in the more destructive form of depression and hyperinflation or they may show up as recession and inflation. The federal reserve, congress and the American people will be the deciding factors.
However, there are some certainties:
Gas prices will continue to follow their erratic path upward. Demand has simply exceeded supply. So until the economy tanks, don't expect any relief. You can blame the oil companies, OPEC and the government (and they all do get part of the blame), but the biggest culprit will be found by looking in the mirror. The refusal of the American people to accept that they ran out of oil in the 1970's is the root cause. Don't expect any technical fixes from ethanol, hydrogen and alternate energy. Those are pretty much part of the whole “greed, politics and self delusion” paradigm.
Food prices will also rise. Mostly because everything is grown elsewhere in the world, then flow, shipped and trucked to us. Only a small percent of people get their food from local sources.
Beyond those two points, it all depends on whether we go inflationary or recession.
Inflation: From the looks of things, the Federal Reserve has chosen inflation. They keep printing money, while the government keeps adjusting the economic indicators to make it look like we are not experiencing inflation. Here are a couple of links if you want to see how they are doing it.
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/2007/0416.html
http://www.shadowstats.com/cgi-bin/sgs?
Much like the pre great depression stock market, this depends on keeping the public fooled into business as usual (keep borrowing money for houses and cars). All we need is some event to start a panic, and we end up on the other side other tightrope.
On the positive side, inflation makes all that foreign debt worth less. On the negative side it also makes your taxes go up and your social security check worthless.
Recession: Gas shortages, terrorist attack, bad hurricane season, war or someone peeking behind the wizards curtain, it really doesn't matter. People will stay home and not buy things, but especially they will not buy big things like cars and houses. Unemployment will rise, and we will start having riots.
The Final Certainty is shortages:
Regardless of inflation or recession, eventually there will not be enough oil to meet demand, or it will be so expensive you can't afford it. Both scenarios lead to the same destination. It's just the speed and route that are different. Ultimate we will start to experience shortages. First it will be gasoline, then food, then electricity, then clothing..... Well, you get the idea.
In the short term, the gas shortage will follow this script:
PRE-EVENT
1) Up to now, mostly Eyewash: Calls for research, Compact florescent bulbs and drilling on those tiny (on a percent basis) patches of untouched North American land and sea.
2) Currently: Calls for conservation and higher CAFÉ standards, always to be implemented sometime in the future. Congress and the president know what is coming, but lack the intelligence and will to minimize the impact.
POST-EVENT
1) Nothing to see here, just move along! Lots of speeches with fake outrage and blaming the oil companies. Meanwhile prices spiral up, but no useful actions are taken. Everyone hopes the monster just goes away like it did before.
2) Weak Rationing! Either by tax increases or the alternate day license plate scheme. Also return of the 55 mph speed limit.
3) Strong rationing! Using either coupon or smart card. Limits on how much you can buy. Speed limit lowered to 50 mph
4) Government, agriculture and food/fuel transport use only.
5) Re-alignment of society.
When I say “Re-alignment of society”, I don't mean real life road warriors doing Mad Max interpretations. Other modern societies have experienced the loss of oil supplies and survived. The still have police and armies. Unfortunately they also had (and continue to have) massive society wide starvation. The two country that come to mind are Cuba and North Korea. During the Cold War the were supplied with, essentially, a free unlimited supply of oil. When the Soviet Union collapsed, their mechanized, oil powered, centrally managed farms, ground to a halt. It was and is the main factor for making life in those countries even more unpleasant then it was during the cold war.
Why?:
Surplus energy is the difference between a complex civilization, and a bunch of isolated tribes. You must produce enough surplus energy, beyond mere subsistence levels, if you want a complex civilization.
Politicians, scholars, stock brokers and a host of others, do not really contribute anything essential to a society. But once you reach the point where you have enough to survive, humans always want more!!!
First it was silk and spices from the far east, to stimulate the senses. Then books to stimulate the mind, and newspapers to link you to the outside work. Not long after that, you wake up one morning in a "service" economy run by lawyers and accountants. All this occurs because you have enough of an energy surplus (food), to feed all the hair stylists and news anchors.
When fossil fuel was discovered, humanity gained an enormous bonanza. It had a far greater energy density than draught animals, food or wood. They call it “horsepower” for a reason. We now had an enormous surplus of energy. Until it started to run out!
If you don't believe we are running out of cheap oil, then ask yourself these questions. Why are we drilling for oil in such inhospitable places like the arctic and the deep ocean? Why do we keep financing terrorism, by buying oil from people who want to kill us?
Understanding:
To truly understand what is coming, we need to understand how much our lives currently rely on oil and gas!!!!
Food: Diesel tractors plant and harvest it, natural gas provides the fertilizer and oil based pesticides keep it healthy. Then diesel powered trucks and trains bring it to you.
Clothing: Wear cotton? See the entry on food. Wear synthetics? Then you are wearing petroleum.
Shelter: Live in a wooden house? See the entry on food. Live in a steel, concrete or brick house? Then you live in house made with oil and gas.
Heat: If you heat your house with oil or gas, the answer is obvious. If you use a heat pump, then you should know that the coal and nuclear fuel are transported to the power plant by truck and train, as are the people who operate the power plant.
After thoughts:
Like the great depression, the reality the publics perceives of , "when the troubles started", is kind of false. What the American public perceives as the “start”, is really just the point where it starts to effect them personally. The reality is that the end of the “Golden Age” was in 1970's with the peaking of oil production in the lower 48 state, and the 1973 OPEC oil embargo. We have just been living off the stored economic fat of the country since then. We have maximized this stored fat, by increasing productivity with computers. (Remember playing “telephone tag” at work, back before email).
Meanwhile, a compliant news industry distracted us with assorted fluff and mindless cheer leading. While assets and jobs left the country, and massive dept was accumulated.
As a resident of this era, your higher though processes have probably not noticed its end. Mostly because you're busy just trying to get through life, but also because of some very fancy footwork by the federal reserve and some pretty blatant fraud by government agencies that report statistics.
Here is a link to help you understand why you haven't noticed the end (you can skip the first part if you want, and just scroll way down to the chocolate cake).
I'm tempted to start this blog by elaborating on how we got ourselves into this mess, but I will leave it for now. It's pretty must just the same old reasons: greed, politics and self delusion.
But what we all want to know is, what will happen next??????
I wish I had a simple answer for you, but the reality is we are walking a tightrope between two economic extremes. They may manifest themselves in the more destructive form of depression and hyperinflation or they may show up as recession and inflation. The federal reserve, congress and the American people will be the deciding factors.
However, there are some certainties:
Gas prices will continue to follow their erratic path upward. Demand has simply exceeded supply. So until the economy tanks, don't expect any relief. You can blame the oil companies, OPEC and the government (and they all do get part of the blame), but the biggest culprit will be found by looking in the mirror. The refusal of the American people to accept that they ran out of oil in the 1970's is the root cause. Don't expect any technical fixes from ethanol, hydrogen and alternate energy. Those are pretty much part of the whole “greed, politics and self delusion” paradigm.
Food prices will also rise. Mostly because everything is grown elsewhere in the world, then flow, shipped and trucked to us. Only a small percent of people get their food from local sources.
Beyond those two points, it all depends on whether we go inflationary or recession.
Inflation: From the looks of things, the Federal Reserve has chosen inflation. They keep printing money, while the government keeps adjusting the economic indicators to make it look like we are not experiencing inflation. Here are a couple of links if you want to see how they are doing it.
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/2007/0416.html
http://www.shadowstats.com/cgi-bin/sgs?
Much like the pre great depression stock market, this depends on keeping the public fooled into business as usual (keep borrowing money for houses and cars). All we need is some event to start a panic, and we end up on the other side other tightrope.
On the positive side, inflation makes all that foreign debt worth less. On the negative side it also makes your taxes go up and your social security check worthless.
Recession: Gas shortages, terrorist attack, bad hurricane season, war or someone peeking behind the wizards curtain, it really doesn't matter. People will stay home and not buy things, but especially they will not buy big things like cars and houses. Unemployment will rise, and we will start having riots.
The Final Certainty is shortages:
Regardless of inflation or recession, eventually there will not be enough oil to meet demand, or it will be so expensive you can't afford it. Both scenarios lead to the same destination. It's just the speed and route that are different. Ultimate we will start to experience shortages. First it will be gasoline, then food, then electricity, then clothing..... Well, you get the idea.
In the short term, the gas shortage will follow this script:
PRE-EVENT
1) Up to now, mostly Eyewash: Calls for research, Compact florescent bulbs and drilling on those tiny (on a percent basis) patches of untouched North American land and sea.
2) Currently: Calls for conservation and higher CAFÉ standards, always to be implemented sometime in the future. Congress and the president know what is coming, but lack the intelligence and will to minimize the impact.
POST-EVENT
1) Nothing to see here, just move along! Lots of speeches with fake outrage and blaming the oil companies. Meanwhile prices spiral up, but no useful actions are taken. Everyone hopes the monster just goes away like it did before.
2) Weak Rationing! Either by tax increases or the alternate day license plate scheme. Also return of the 55 mph speed limit.
3) Strong rationing! Using either coupon or smart card. Limits on how much you can buy. Speed limit lowered to 50 mph
4) Government, agriculture and food/fuel transport use only.
5) Re-alignment of society.
When I say “Re-alignment of society”, I don't mean real life road warriors doing Mad Max interpretations. Other modern societies have experienced the loss of oil supplies and survived. The still have police and armies. Unfortunately they also had (and continue to have) massive society wide starvation. The two country that come to mind are Cuba and North Korea. During the Cold War the were supplied with, essentially, a free unlimited supply of oil. When the Soviet Union collapsed, their mechanized, oil powered, centrally managed farms, ground to a halt. It was and is the main factor for making life in those countries even more unpleasant then it was during the cold war.
Why?:
Surplus energy is the difference between a complex civilization, and a bunch of isolated tribes. You must produce enough surplus energy, beyond mere subsistence levels, if you want a complex civilization.
Politicians, scholars, stock brokers and a host of others, do not really contribute anything essential to a society. But once you reach the point where you have enough to survive, humans always want more!!!
First it was silk and spices from the far east, to stimulate the senses. Then books to stimulate the mind, and newspapers to link you to the outside work. Not long after that, you wake up one morning in a "service" economy run by lawyers and accountants. All this occurs because you have enough of an energy surplus (food), to feed all the hair stylists and news anchors.
When fossil fuel was discovered, humanity gained an enormous bonanza. It had a far greater energy density than draught animals, food or wood. They call it “horsepower” for a reason. We now had an enormous surplus of energy. Until it started to run out!
If you don't believe we are running out of cheap oil, then ask yourself these questions. Why are we drilling for oil in such inhospitable places like the arctic and the deep ocean? Why do we keep financing terrorism, by buying oil from people who want to kill us?
Understanding:
To truly understand what is coming, we need to understand how much our lives currently rely on oil and gas!!!!
Food: Diesel tractors plant and harvest it, natural gas provides the fertilizer and oil based pesticides keep it healthy. Then diesel powered trucks and trains bring it to you.
Clothing: Wear cotton? See the entry on food. Wear synthetics? Then you are wearing petroleum.
Shelter: Live in a wooden house? See the entry on food. Live in a steel, concrete or brick house? Then you live in house made with oil and gas.
Heat: If you heat your house with oil or gas, the answer is obvious. If you use a heat pump, then you should know that the coal and nuclear fuel are transported to the power plant by truck and train, as are the people who operate the power plant.
After thoughts:
Like the great depression, the reality the publics perceives of , "when the troubles started", is kind of false. What the American public perceives as the “start”, is really just the point where it starts to effect them personally. The reality is that the end of the “Golden Age” was in 1970's with the peaking of oil production in the lower 48 state, and the 1973 OPEC oil embargo. We have just been living off the stored economic fat of the country since then. We have maximized this stored fat, by increasing productivity with computers. (Remember playing “telephone tag” at work, back before email).
Meanwhile, a compliant news industry distracted us with assorted fluff and mindless cheer leading. While assets and jobs left the country, and massive dept was accumulated.
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